老年和非老年出租车司机事故伤害严重程度的差异:时间不稳定性和样本外预测
Reuben Tamakloe1, Mahdi Khorasani1, Inhi Kim1
1Cho Chun Shik Graduate School of Mobility, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, 193 Munji-ro, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 34051, Republic of Korea.
Accident; analysis and prevention
|December 8, 2024
概括
首尔的老年出租车司机涉及到更多的致命和严重伤害 (FSI) 事故. 影响碰撞严重性的因素因年龄和时间而异,需要为老年驾驶员量身定制的安全干预措施.
科学领域:
- 运输安全运输安全
- 老年学是一门学科.
- 交通工程是交通工程.
背景情况:
- 首尔的老年人口 (64岁以上) 和老年出租车司机数量显著增加 (2018-2023年).
- 涉及老年出租车司机的致命和严重伤害 (FSI) 事故已经增加,超过了COVID-19后的非老年司机.
- 现有的研究缺乏关注出租车司机撞车严重性因素的时间和年龄组稳定性.
研究的目的:
- 为了检查影响出租车司机过错撞车伤害严重程度的因素的稳定性,随着时间的推移和跨年龄组.
- 为了比较老年和非老年出租车司机之间的撞车严重程度.
- 确定特定的风险因素,并提出有针对性的安全措施.
主要方法:
- 分析了首尔出租车事故数据 (2017-2023年) 使用日志概率比率测试的因素稳定性.
- 使用随机参数二元逻辑框架开发单独的统计模型.
- 考虑到老年和非老年驾驶员在COVID-19前,期间和后期间撞车风险因素的异质性.
主要成果:
- 发现撞车严重性的风险因素在各个年龄组和时间段都不稳定.
- 增加FSI可能性的因素包括深夜,干燥的道路,信号违规以及更高的速度限制 (80公里/小时).
- 老年司机,特别是那些违反信号或与老年无辜当事人有关的人,表现出更高的FSI概率. 非老年司机预计近年来FSI将减少.
结论:
- 由于事故风险因素的动态性,有针对性的干预措施至关重要.
- 强制性健身评估,疲劳/分心检测和灵活的工作安排是建议老年司机.
- 激励年轻司机和加强安全基础设施 (照明,信号,速度限制) 可以减轻风险.
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