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气候变化风险和经济政策不确定性对碳价格的影响:从复杂系统角度进行配置分析
Xing Zhou1, Siqing Xing1, Jianze Xu1
1School of Business, Jiangsu Normal University, Xuzhou, 221116, China.
Journal of environmental management
|December 8, 2024
概括
气候变化风险,包括物理风险和过渡风险,显著影响碳价格. 较低的风险有利于提高碳价格,突出需要政府关注这些因素和经济政策的不确定性.
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候政策分析 气候政策分析
- 复杂系统科学 复杂系统科学
背景情况:
- 碳定价机制对于减缓气候变化至关重要.
- 对影响碳价格因素的研究在很大程度上忽视了气候变化风险.
- 了解这些风险对于有效运行碳市场至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候物理风险 (CPR) 和气候转型风险 (CTR) 对碳价格的影响.
- 用复杂的系统视角分析影响碳价格的因素的复杂相互作用.
- 为政府监管和碳市场利益相关者决策提供见解.
主要方法:
- 员工必要条件分析 (NCA) 和模糊的定性比较分析 (fsQCA).
- 在复杂的系统框架内分析区域CPR和CTR.
- 在建立国家碳市场之前和之后比较变量变化.
主要成果:
- 湖北碳价格的关键驱动因素包括煤炭价格,市场监管和国家碳市场价格.
- 较高的经济政策不确定性 (EPU) 与其他因素相结合,可能导致碳价格上.
- 发现较低的CPR和CTR有助于提高碳价格,而CTR是一个被忽视的因素.
结论:
- 气候变化风险 (CPR和CTR) 和EPU显著影响碳价格.
- 减少CPR和CTR对于提高碳价格和市场效率至关重要.
- 政府和利益相关者必须考虑这些气候风险,以制定明智的碳市场政策和战略.
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