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创纪录的极端气候变化的可能性越来越大
E M Fischer1, S Sippel1, R Knutti1
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Universitätstrasse 16, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland.
概括
气候变化正在增加前所未有的极端天气事件的可能性. 这些创纪录的极端变化更多地取决于变暖的速度,而不是总体温度的增加.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 极端天气事件 极端天气事件
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 最近的极端气候已经明显超过了历史记录.
- 社会适应往往依赖于经历的最高强度,使前所未有的事件特别具有影响力.
- 现有的适应策略可能不足以应对新的极端事件.
研究的目的:
- 预测未来的气候极端事件的发生和规模.
- 调查影响这些前所未有的事件发生概率的驱动因素.
- 评估极端事件概率在气候变化场景中的路径依赖性.
主要方法:
- 利用气候模型来模拟未来的极端气候.
- 分析了创纪录事件的预计强度和频率.
- 量化了变暖速度,变暖水平和事件概率之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 气候模型预测更强烈的极端和事件将以更大的利率打破以前的记录.
- 创纪录的极端现象的概率强烈依赖于全球变暖的速度 (取决于路径).
- 在高排放场景中,在21世纪,一周的极端热量以≥3个标准偏差打破记录的可能性大大增加.
结论:
- 预计在未来几十年里,以前罕见的创纪录的极端气候变化将变得更加频繁.
- 温室气体排放的路径极大地影响了这些前所未有的事件的可能性.
- 到2051-2080年,在高排放路径下,北半球中度可能每6-37年发生一次这样的极端高温事件.
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