一个基于空间时间图形卷积网络的共享自行车需求预测模型
Chaoran Zhou1, Jiahao Hu1, Xin Zhang1
1School of Computer Science and Technology, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, Jilin, China.
PeerJ. Computer science
|December 9, 2024
概括
本研究引入了一个空间时间共享自行车需求预测 (ST-BDP) 模型,以优化自行车放置. 该模型准确预测需求,提高共享自行车效率和城市流动性.
科学领域:
- 城市规划和交通科学 城市规划和交通科学
- 数据科学和人工智能数据科学和人工智能
- 环境可持续性 环境可持续性
背景情况:
- 基于站点的自行车共享系统往往导致由于不理想的放置策略而导致使用不足的自行车.
- 现有的模型可能无法充分考虑影响自行车需求的复杂的空间和时间因素.
- 环保的交通方式,如共享自行车,对于城市拥堵和减少排放至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一个先进的模型来预测空间用户对站间共享自行车的需求.
- 提高共享单车系统的效率和资源分配.
- 为优化共享单车政策和运营提供数据驱动的见解.
主要方法:
- 介绍了空间时间共享自行车需求预测 (ST-BDP) 模型.
- 利用包括天气和时间信息在内的多源数据.
- 使用时空图卷积网络 (STGCN) 与注意力机制和顺序卷积网络.
主要成果:
- 该ST-BDP模型在真实世界数据集上表现出卓越的性能.
- 取得了优异的准确度指标:MAE=1.62,MAPE=15.82%,SMAPE=16.14%,RMSE=2.36. 这些指标都非常准确.
- 在需求预测准确性方面表现优于现有的基线技术.
结论:
- ST-BDP模型在预测自行车共享需求方面取得了重大进展.
- 准确的需求预测可以指导更有效的共享自行车系统管理和政策制定.
- 该模型的精度支持改善城市流动性和资源利用在共享运输.
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