起源和比赛地点对IRONMAN®年龄组三项运动员的表现的影响
Beat Knechtle1,2, David Valero3, Elias Villiger2
1Medbase St. Gallen Am Vadianplatz, St. Gallen, Switzerland.
PloS one
|December 9, 2024
概括
为了获得IRONMAN® (IM) 世界锦标赛的资格,年龄组三项运动员应该准更快的IM赛道. 优良的条件和地点,如IM奥地利,哥本哈根,巴西和巴塞罗那,为实现快速比赛时间提供了最佳机会.
科学领域:
- 耐力运动科学 耐力运动科学
- 三项竞技比赛绩效分析
- 体育数据分析 运动数据分析
背景情况:
- 铁人三项 (IRONMAN®) (IM) 三项是首屈一指的多项体育赛事,吸引了众多年龄组的运动员,他们的目标是夏威夷的IM世界锦标赛.
- 确定最快的IM赛道对于年龄组三项运动员来说至关重要,他们可以根据个人优势和弱点策划自己的资格尝试.
研究的目的:
- 在全球范围内为年龄组三项运动员确定和排名最快的IRONMAN® (IM) 赛道.
- 利用描述性和预测性统计方法来确定最佳比赛地点以获得资格.
主要方法:
- 分析了2002年至2022年间的677,702个年龄组IM完成者记录,遍及66个活动地点和228个国家.
- 使用终点时间作为依赖变量进行预测模型的开发,考虑运动员的人口统计,赛事地点和环境因素 (空气/水温).
- 在75%的数据上进行模型培训,在剩余的25%数据上进行验证,使用可解释性工具来评估预测的重要性.
主要成果:
- 根据平均速度,IM Vitoria-Gasteiz,IM哥本哈根,IM夏威夷,IM塔林和IM雷根斯堡被确定为排名第一的最快的课程.
- 预测建模表明IM夏威夷是整体最快的课程,35岁以下的男性运动员是最快的人口统计.
- 对于快速比赛时间的最佳环境条件观察到大约27°C的空气温度和24°C的水温.
结论:
- 寻求参加夏威夷IM世界锦标赛的年龄组运动员应该考虑参加IM奥地利,IM哥本哈根,IM巴西弗洛里亚诺波利斯和IM巴塞罗那.
- 这些选定的比赛可能会提供有利的环境温度,有利于实现快速的比赛时间,以获得资格.
- 该研究为三项运动员提供了可操作的见解,以选择最大限度地提高他们获得资格时间的潜力的赛道.
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