不确定性分析方法用于诊断城市排水系统的多点缺陷
Chutian Zhou1, Pan Liu1, Xinran Luo1
1State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Research Institute for Water Security (RIWS), Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; Hubei Provincial Key Lab of Water System Science for Sponge City Construction, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China.
Water research
|December 9, 2024
概括
这项研究引入了一种混合方法来诊断城市排水系统的缺陷,提高准确性和速度. 它通过分析管道泄漏检测中的不确定性,有效地减少了误诊.
科学领域:
- 环境工程 环境工程
- 计算流体动力学的流体动力学.
- 地质技术工程 地质技术工程
背景情况:
- 城市排水系统 (UDS) 是关键基础设施,但管道缺陷会导致漏,导致城市洪水和环境问题.
- 目前的缺陷检测方法,比如反向优化,通常会产生单一的解决方案,忽视不确定性并冒错误诊断的风险.
- 同时诊断多个缺陷是由于高维参数空间而带来的重大计算挑战.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种新的混合方法,用于在UDS中准确和高效的多点缺陷诊断.
- 将不确定性分析纳入缺陷定位,以减轻误诊.
- 为了减少与多点缺陷识别相关的计算负担.
主要方法:
- 这是一种混合方法,它结合了用于广泛模型空间探索的多种群遗传算法 (GA) 和用于后方概率分布 (PPD) 估计的自适应大都市 (AM) 算法.
- GA用于识别可能的缺陷位置,其次是AM来改进缺陷参数的PPD.
- 在合成UDS数据上使用精度 (ACC),马修斯相关系数 (MCC) 和平均绝对误差 (MAE) 的性能评估.
主要成果:
- 拟议的混合方法在多点缺陷诊断方面表现优越,与DiffeRential Evolution适应大都市方法相比,实现了更高的ACC (0.91对0.78) 和MCC (0.87对0.69).
- 诊断速度提高了32%,解决了传统方法的计算负担.
- 估计的PPD通过了90%的置信区间验证,证实了不确定性分析的可靠性.
结论:
- 混合GA-AM方法为诊断UDS多点缺陷提供了有效的解决方案,提供了强大的不确定性分析.
- 这种方法显著降低了经常与传统单一解决方案方法相关的误诊风险.
- 提高速度和准确性使这种方法适合在城市基础设施管理中的实际应用.
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