加快农业研发转移对全球粮食安全的影响
Yan Jin1, Zuzana Smeets Kristkova2,3, Maximilian Kardung1
1Agricultural Economics and Rural Policy Group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, Netherlands.
GM crops & food
|December 9, 2024
概括
推迟基因组编辑 (GE) 的采用会产生重大成本. 加快GE研发 (R&D) 转移对于全球粮食安全和经济福利至关重要,在发展中国家的好处最为明显.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 生物技术是生物技术.
- 经济政策 经济政策
背景情况:
- 由于漫长的监管流程,推迟基因组编辑 (GE) 的采用阻碍了农业创新.
- 加快研发 (R&D) 转移对于可持续农业和全球粮食安全至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 量化推迟基因组编辑 (GE) 采用的经济影响.
- 用MAGNET模型分析加速研发转移带来的好处.
主要方法:
- 使用MAGNET模型进行经济建模,以纳入动态的研发积累.
- 情景分析比较了GE技术的加速与延迟的研发转移.
- 用货币计算延迟成本 (COD) 的计算.
主要成果:
- 在高收入国家加速研发转移对全球经济表现,福利和粮食负担能力产生积极影响.
- 根据地区,COD的年金有很大差异,巴西的潜在损失 (-11亿美元) 和欧洲的收益 (185亿美元).
- 三年加速最有利于中低收入国家,中国 (839亿美元) 预计将获得实质性收益.
结论:
- 简化GE的监管框架对于实现经济效益至关重要.
- 加快的GE技术的研发转让大大提高了全球粮食安全和福利.
- 有针对性的政策干预可以最大限度地发挥农业生物技术的社会经济优势.
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