对安大略省淡水娱乐所致的急性胃肠道疾病的定量微生物风险评估
Henry Ngo1, E Jane Parmley2, Nicole Ricker3
1Water, Health, and Applied Microbiology Lab (WHAM Lab), Department of Pathobiology, Ontario Veterinary College, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON, Canada.
Canadian journal of public health = Revue canadienne de sante publique
|December 10, 2024
概括
在安大略省的淡水娱乐活动带来了急性胃肠道疾病 (AGI) 的风险,估计每1000例病例有0.8至36.7例. 本次定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 突出了潜在的风险,特别是在污染较严重的水域.
科学领域:
- 环境微生物学环境微生物学
- 公共卫生风险评估 公共卫生风险评估
- 传染病流行病学 传染病流行病学
背景情况:
- 急性胃肠道疾病 (AGI) 在加拿大每年造成大约2000万例病例.
- 淡水体内的娱乐活动是AGI的已知风险因素.
- 加拿大的淡水娱乐活动对AGI的特定风险在很大程度上仍未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 为了估计在加拿大安大略省的淡水娱乐活动中暴露于特定病原体的AGI发展风险.
- 量化归因于淡水娱乐活动的AGI病例比例.
- 评估与病原体相关的风险,包括Giardia,Cryptosporidium,Campylobacter,大肠杆菌O157:H7,诺病毒和沙门氏菌.
主要方法:
- 使用了定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 框架.
- 该QMRA涉及危害识别,暴露评估,剂量反应建模和风险表征.
- 一个概率模型整合了病原体数据,摄入水量和剂量反应关系,以估计疾病风险.
主要成果:
- 从淡水娱乐活动中估计的AGI平均风险在每1000个娱乐活动中从0.8到36.7个病例不等.
- 对AGI风险的第5至95个概率区间为每1000个事件中0-226.3个病例.
- 上限风险预测超过了加拿大卫生部的指南,即每1000名休者中<20例.
结论:
- 定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 是一种可行的方法来估计疾病风险在缺乏广泛的流行病学数据的情况下.
- 研究结果表明风险的范围,与水质相关,从原始水质到更受污染的水质.
- 这些发现强调了淡水娱乐对公众,包括弱势群体的潜在健康风险.
关键词:
归因的归因 归因的归因加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大加拿大疾病负担 疾病负担肠道疾病是一种肠道疾病.淡水的娱乐活动.病原体是一种病原体.定量微生物风险评估 定量微生物风险评估水源性疾病是通过水传播的.更多相关视频
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