评估元分析作为复制成功的衡量标准
Jasmine Muradchanian1, Rink Hoekstra1, Henk Kiers1
1Behavioural and Social Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, the Netherlands.
PloS one
|December 11, 2024
概括
作为社会科学中的复制成功指标,元分析表现不佳. 它经常错误地得出成功的结论,无论复制结果如何,由于原始研究的重要性.
科学领域:
- 社会和行为科学 社会和行为科学
- 研究方法研究方法论.
- 统计分析 统计分析
背景情况:
- 复制在社会和行为科学中至关重要.
- 超分析是评估复制成功的一种方法.
- 已经有了先前的方法来验证复制成功.
研究的目的:
- 评估元分析作为复制成功的指标.
- 调查元分析如何在合格的复制结果中发挥作用.
- 评估复制成功的元分析预测的准确性.
主要方法:
- 利用来自大规模复制项目的原始和复制研究.
- 使用元分析计算复制成功的概率.
- 在复制结果已知后,通过调整的布里尔得分评估预测准确性.
主要成果:
- 作为复制成功指标,元分析表现不佳.
- 成功的结论往往不考虑实际的复制研究结果.
- 分析显示,即使真实效应为零,检测非零效应的概率很高.
结论:
- 分析不是复制成功的可靠指标.
- 原始研究的意义很大程度上影响了元分析的结果.
- 使用元分析来判断复制成功存在根本问题.
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