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作为应对气候变暖的应对措施,安全的湖冰通道的广泛丧失
Joshua Culpepper1, Lei Huang2,3, R Iestyn Woolway4
1Department of Biology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada.
PloS one
|December 11, 2024
概括
温度升温缩短了安全的湖冰季节,因为它改变了冰的形成和断裂时间. 冰质量,就像白色冰的比例一样,显著影响安全,减少可用的冰天.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 水文学的水文学
背景情况:
- 数以百万计的人依赖湖冰来度过冬季的娱乐活动.
- 空气温度的升温会影响湖冰的现象学和质量,这对安全至关重要.
- 冰盖持续时间和质量的变化减少了安全使用冰的时间.
研究的目的:
- 预测北半球冬季的湖冰安全性,使用大集合建模方法.
- 分析气温升高对湖冰形成,破裂和质量的影响.
- 在不同的变暖情景下量化安全冰盖持续时间的变化.
主要方法:
- 使用了社区地球系统模型版本2大集合 (CESM2-LE).
- 计算了从冰形成到安全厚度的时间,考虑黑白冰的比率.
- 分析了北半球2,379至2,829个网格电池,以确保冰的安全性.
主要成果:
- 从不安全到安全的冰盖的过渡期越来越长.
- 安全冰盖的总持续时间正在减少.
- 在一个4°C温暖的世界里,不安全的过渡期增加了5天 (黑冰) 到20天 (白冰).
- 湖泊可能每年不安全5至29天,这取决于冰质量.
结论:
- 湖冰的现象学和质量对于评估冬季娱乐安全至关重要.
- 降低冰质量,特别是较高比例的白色冰,大大降低了安全冰的条件.
- 了解这些变化对于预测未来在气候变暖下湖冰安全至关重要.
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