基于肠道微生物群和Kellgren-Lawrence分类的微生物组增强模型用于预测膝关节骨关节炎进展
Lei Jiang1, Shankai Liu2, Hongyang Kong1
1Department of Orthopedics, The Affiliated Taizhou People's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, Taizhou, CHN.
Cureus
|December 12, 2024
概括
一个新的微生物组增强模型使用肠道微生物群数据准确预测膝关节关节炎 (OA) 的进展. 这种工具有助于识别患有快速疾病进展风险的患者,从而使早期干预成为可能.
科学领域:
- 整形外科和风湿病学
- 微生物组研究 微生物组研究
- 医学数据科学 医学数据科学
背景情况:
- 膝关节骨关节炎 (OA) 是一种常见的退行性疾病,进展速度可变.
- 肠-关节轴,一种双向关系,显著影响OA的发病和进展.
- 预测OA疾病进展对于及时有效的患者管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证膝关节OA疾病进展的预测模型.
- 评估肠道微生物群数据在预测OA进展方面的有用性.
- 建立一个模型,识别患有快速膝关节OA恶化风险的患者.
主要方法:
- 一项前性队列研究包括270名膝关节OA患者,通过X射线和CT扫描诊断.
- 便样本分析了肠道微生物群组成,以及一般患者信息.
- 最小绝对收缩和选择操作员 (LASSO) 回归和微生物群增强模型,包括光梯度增强机 (LGBM),用于预测并使用准确度,灵敏度,特异性,PPV,NPV和AUC进行验证.
主要成果:
- 使用LGBM的微生物组增强模型在根据Kellgren-Lawrence分类预测膝盖OA进展方面表现出卓越的表现.
- 在测试组中,LGBM模型的AUC值为0.876,准确度为0.830,灵敏度为0.759,特异性为0.917.
- 一年后,与II/III级患者相比,在I级凯尔格伦-劳伦斯分类患者中观察到较低的Shannon指数值.
结论:
- 基于LGBM的微生物组增强模型有效地预测了膝盖OA的进展,提前一年.
- 这种模型可以识别易受快速关节炎进展的患者,促进个性化治疗策略.
- 这些发现突显了肠关节轴在膝关节OA病原和进展中的重要作用.
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