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保护未来2050:开发未来的场景来探索潜在的社会经济发展及其对生物多样性的影响
Jennifer L Bufford1, Angela J Brandt2, Anne-Gaelle Ausseil3
1Manaaki Whenua-Landcare Research, Lincoln, New Zealand.
PloS one
|December 12, 2024
概括
场景构建有助于长期规划生物多样性保护,通过探索未来,如土著土地管理和掠食者根除. 这种方法整合了多个不同部门,以应对全球变化的生态系统和社会影响.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 保护生物学 保护生物学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 全球变化需要长期的,多部门的生物多样性保护规划.
- 目前的保护响应往往是短期的,并且在各机构之间分散.
- 场景构建为保护领域的综合,长期思维提供了一个框架.
研究的目的:
- 开发和探索生物多样性保护的潜在未来场景.
- 为未来的规划整合环境,经济,社会和政策的观点.
- 在未来各种环境条件中确定共同的主题,机遇和风险.
主要方法:
- 开发了针对新西兰的跨学科专家领导的场景.
- 场景包括土著土地管理,土著植树,侵袭性掠食者根除和极端天气事件.
- 使用环境,经济,社会科学和政策镜头分析影响.
主要成果:
- 土地利用在所有情景中都成为保护结果的关键驱动因素.
- 对生态系统服务价值的优先考虑对各种保护结果产生了重大影响.
- 场景强调了平等,土著赋权和人力资本的机会和风险.
结论:
- 情景构建是积极保护和管理生物多样性的强大,可通用的工具.
- 有效的政策响应至关重要,以最大限度地发挥好处,并减轻未来变化的危害.
- 这种方法激发了管理生物入侵和其他保护挑战的新问题.
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