模拟和预测巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放,使用回归和时间序列模型的混合组合
Hasnain Iftikhar1,2, Murad Khan3, Justyna Żywiołek4
1Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, 45320, Pakistan.
Heliyon
|December 13, 2024
概括
预测二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放对于减缓气候变化至关重要. 这项研究开发了一种混合模型,以准确预测巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放,预计到2030年人均排放量为1.13公.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候变化研究 气候变化研究
- 计量经济学 计量经济学
背景情况:
- 全球二氧化碳 (CO2) 排放量正在上升,对环境构成重大威胁.
- 准确的二氧化碳排放预测对于有效的气候变化减缓战略至关重要.
- 能源部门是造成有害二氧化碳排放的主要贡献者.
研究的目的:
- 综合分析和比较二氧化碳排放的混合预测方法.
- 开发一个准确和有效的模型来预测巴基斯坦的二氧化碳排放.
- 预测巴基斯坦未来的人均二氧化碳排放量.
主要方法:
- 二氧化碳排放时间序列的分解为长期趋势和剩余子序列.
- 使用参数和非参数回归技术建模趋势.
- 使用标准时间序列模型预测余量,并结合子序列预测.
主要成果:
- 拟议的混合预测技术显示出高精度和高效率.
- 最佳混合模型预测,巴基斯坦的人均二氧化碳排放量将在2030年达到1.130215.
- 该研究证实了结合回归和时间序列方法的有效性.
结论:
- 混合预测模型为预测二氧化碳排放提供了可靠的方法.
- 需要紧急和创造性的解决方案来制巴基斯坦不断升级的二氧化碳排放趋势.
- 政策建议包括碳定价,促进清洁能源,植树和技术创新.
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