尼泊尔的登革热动态:一个卡普托分数模型,具有最佳控制策略
Hem Raj Pandey1,2, Ganga Ram Phaijoo2, Dil Bahadur Gurung2
1School of Engineering, Faculty of Science and Technology, Pokhara University, Nepal.
Heliyon
|December 13, 2024
概括
实施驱虫剂和杀虫剂等控制措施显著减少了尼泊尔的登革热疫情. 这项研究模拟了登革热的传播,以指导有效的公共卫生策略来对抗这种由蚊子传播的疾病.
科学领域:
- 传染病的流行病学和数学建模.
- 分数计算在公共卫生中的应用.
- 热带和亚热带地区的疾病控制战略.
背景情况:
- 登革热是全球主要的健康威胁,特别是在热带/亚热带地区.
- 尼泊尔在2023年经历了严重的登革热疫情,目前还没有具体的治疗方法.
- 有效的控制措施对于防止登革热传播至关重要,特别是在发展中国家.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析卡普托分数登革热模型,并采用最佳的控制策略.
- 调查干预措施的影响,如蚊虫驱蚊剂和杀虫剂的使用.
- 为决策者提供关于尼泊尔登革热预防和控制的见解.
主要方法:
- 利用固定点定理来证明解决方案的存在和独特性.
- 分析了Ulam-Hyers稳定性和无疾病平衡.
- 采用双步拉格朗日插值技术进行模拟和最小方程进行参数估计.
- 适用庞特里亚金最大原则来确定最佳的控制.
主要成果:
- 证明了模型解决方案的存在和独特性.
- 使用尼泊尔真实登革热感染数据估计的模型参数.
- 灵敏度分析确定了影响基本复制数的关键参数.
- 最佳控制策略在减少登革热发病率方面取得了显著的成功.
结论:
- 控制措施,包括驱虫剂和杀虫剂的使用,在缓解登革热传播方面非常有效.
- 分数登革热模型为评估流行病情景提供了有价值的框架.
- 这些发现支持严格实施控制战略,以防止尼泊尔未来的登革热爆发.
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