谋杀案的最近上升:对每周死亡率数据的分析,美国,2018-2022年
Michelle Degli Esposti1, Terry L Schell2, Rosanna Smart2
1From the Institute for Firearm Injury Prevention, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI.
Epidemiology (Cambridge, Mass.)
|December 13, 2024
概括
美国从2019年底开始,枪支杀人案的历史性增长,早于COVID-19大流行. 这一激增影响了所有的人口统计和地点,表明除了流行病之外的因素推动了增长.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
背景情况:
- 美国在2019年至2020年期间,谋杀率在一年内出现了前所未有的增长.
- 精确的时间和促成因素,特别是与COVID-19大流行和乔治·弗洛伊德的杀戮有关,需要进行系统的调查.
研究的目的:
- 调查不同社会人口和地理群体中枪支和非枪支杀人的趋势.
- 为了澄清美国近期谋杀案增加的时间和性质.
主要方法:
- 一项描述性的流行病学研究,利用国家生命统计系统的每周死亡率数据 (2018年1月至2022年12月).
- 每周杀人数据的季节性调整和平滑,以量化相对于关键事件日期的变化 (COVID-19,乔治·弗洛伊德被杀,2020年大选).
- 按社会人口和地理特征分类杀人趋势.
主要成果:
- 从2018年到2022年,枪支杀人事件增加了54%,而非枪支杀人事件保持稳定.
- 枪支凶杀案的增加始于2019年10月,其中28%的增加发生在COVID-19国家紧急状态宣布之前.
- 所有社会人口和地理群体都经历了枪支杀人事件的显著增加.
结论:
- 最近的谋杀案增加的规模和时间被低估了,因为原始数据和季节性影响.
- 仅仅是COVID-19大流行并不能解释历史性的激增,这是枪支杀人案的特点.
- 从2019年底开始,枪支杀人事件的增加影响了整个美国的所有个人和地区.
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