挪威市政府对挪威与温度相关的死亡风险的评估
Liliana Vázquez Fernández1, Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares2, Ana María Vicedo-Cabrera3
1Department of Biostatistics, Institute of Basic Medical Sciences, University of Oslo, Oslo, Norway; Norwegian Institute of Public Health, Oslo, Norway.
Environmental research
|December 13, 2024
概括
寒冷的天气在挪威造成的死亡人数明显超过热量. 对极端温度的脆弱性与人口密度和教育水平有关,这凸显了有针对性的公共卫生战略的需要.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 对与温度相关的死亡率进行全国范围的分析对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
- 很少有研究对不同挪威社区的与温度相关的死亡率进行了研究.
- 了解当地对高温和低温的脆弱性对于有效的公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析挪威环境空气温度与非意外死亡率之间的关联.
- 确定影响温度相关死亡风险的地理,环境,社会经济和人口模式.
- 为挪威提供与温度相关的过度死亡率和相关风险因素的综合评估.
主要方法:
- 利用来自挪威356个市镇的每日死亡率和温度数据 (1996-2018).
- 应用一个案例时间序列设计与分布式滞后非线性模型.
- 员工受约束的层次聚类和主要组件分析,以探索脆弱性因素和异质性.
主要成果:
- 低温与每年约3879例死亡有关,而高温与44例死亡有关.
- 东南地区观察到与热相关的死亡风险最高;与寒冷相关的风险最高的是中东地区.
- 热死亡率增加与人口稀疏相关;高等教育与减少对热和冷的脆弱性有关.
结论:
- 调查结果强调了需要有针对性的,公平的卫生政策,整合环境和社会经济因素.
- 气候适应战略的基本见解,优先考虑农村和社会经济弱势群体的弱势群体.
- 该研究提供了挪威与温度相关的过度死亡率的首次全面评估.
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