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根据未来的气候变化情景,确定脆弱的海洋生态系统指标种群的气候避难所
Edoardo Zelli1, Joanne Ellis1, Conrad Pilditch2
1School of Science, University of Waikato, Tauranga, New Zealand.
Journal of environmental management
|December 15, 2024
概括
气候变化威胁到脆弱的海洋生态系统 (VMEs). 模型预测到2100年,VME指标种群的密度和息地损失将显著,这凸显了更新保护战略的必要性.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态学和保护生物学
- 深海生态系统和生物多样性
- 气候变化对海洋生物的影响
背景情况:
- 脆弱的海洋生态系统 (VMEs) 具有生态意义,易受气候变化的影响.
- 准确的空间预测VME指标种群对于深海管理至关重要.
- 了解气候变化对VME种群分布的影响对于保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了建模14个深水VME指标种群的空间分布和密度.
- 根据未来的气候变化情景 (SSP2-4.5和SSP3-7.0) 预测VME分类分布的变化.
- 为了确定新西兰水域内的VME指标种群的潜在气候避难所.
主要方法:
- 利用随机森林算法进行物种分布建模.
- 在当前和未来的气候条件下 (100-1500米深度) 模拟的种群密度分布.
- 使用AUC,TSS和相关系数评估模型性能.
主要成果:
- 种类分布模型在所有种类中表现良好 (平均AUC = 0.82).
- 根据这两种情景,预计到2100年,息地密度 (54%) 和息地范围 (61%) 的平均减少.
- 确定了VME类型的内部 (158,000平方公里) 和外部 (121,000平方公里) 的气候避难所.
结论:
- 在气候变化下,目前的海洋空间保护可能对VME分类不够.
- 底层拖网活动可能会威胁到已确定气候避难所的生存能力.
- 建议对累积影响进行全面评估,以有效地保护VME.
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