改进了使用鱼优化预测电价的指数级平滑灰洞模型
Benjamin Salomon Diboma1, Flavian Emmanuel Sapnken1,2,3, Mohammed Hamaidi4
1Higher Institute of Transport, Logistics and Commerce, PO Box 22, University of Ebolowa, Ambam, Cameroon.
本研究介绍了一种基于鱼优化算法 (WOA) 的新型Grey-Holt模型,用于电价预测. WOA-GMHES模型为能源市场动态提供了准确,高效和适应性预测.
科学领域:
- 能源经济学 能源经济学
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
- 时间序列预测时间序列预测
背景情况:
- 准确的电价预测对于能源市场的稳定性和决策至关重要.
- 现有的模型往往难以适应动态的市场条件和不断变化的趋势.
- 在快节奏的能源行业中,对计算效率高的预测工具的需求至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种基于鱼优化算法 (WOA) 的多变量指数平滑格雷-霍尔特 (GMHES) 模型用于电价预测.
- 通过使用WOA优化参数来增强预测模型的适应能力.
- 在真实世界的电价数据上评估拟议的WOA-GMHES模型的性能和效率.
主要方法:
- 开发WOA-GMHES(1,N) 模型,将WOA集成为适应性参数优化.
- 使用历史电价数据来捕捉基本趋势和市场动态.
- 在喀麦隆电价数据上使用RMSE和SMAPE指标评估模型的准确性和计算效率.
主要成果:
- 与竞争型号相比,WOA-GMHES(1,N) 模型表现出优越的性能.
- 实现了高精度,RMSE为12.63%和SMAPE为0.01%.
- 展示了计算效率,在1.3秒内生成预测.
结论:
- 该WOA-GMHES(1,N) 模型为电价预测提供了强大而准确的解决方案.
- WOA的适应性增强了该模型捕捉不断变化的市场动态的能力.
- 该模型的效率和准确性使其成为对时间敏感的能源部门决策的宝贵工具.
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