模拟早期发现的癌症动态来研究潜在风险的变化,检测,以及人口查的影响
Navid Mohammad Mirzaei1, Chin Hur1,2,3, Mary Beth Terry1,3,4
1Department of Epidemiology, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, New York, USA.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|December 16, 2024
概括
早期发病的癌症风险似乎真的在增加,而不仅仅是由于早期检测. 针对瘤大小和检测改进的新建建模揭示了近期出生队伍中癌症发展的加速.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 早期发病的癌症 (在50岁以下被诊断) 的发病率不断上升,促使人们对明显与真实的风险增加进行调查.
- 传统的癌症模型在诊断时经常忽视瘤的大小和检测技术的进步.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一个新的建模框架,将瘤大小纳入诊断和检测改进.
- 区分早期癌症发病率的明显增加和真正增加.
- 评估癌症风险的变化以及查对特定出生队伍的影响.
主要方法:
- 引入一个增强的多阶段克隆扩张 (MSCE) 模型,明确纳入瘤大小在诊断.
- 随着时间的推移,考虑癌症检测的改善,以区分明显的和真正的风险增加.
- 该模型在出生队伍 (1950-1954,1965-1969,1980-1984) 中应用于结直肠,女性乳腺和甲状腺癌,并分析查影响.
主要成果:
- 与经典模型相比,增强的MSCE模型显示了结构识别能力和改进的参数估计.
- 分析表明,在最近的出生队伍中,加速致癌事件和更短的平均逗留时间.
- 模型结果与已知的乳腺癌和结直肠癌查效果一致,支持早期癌症风险的真正增加.
结论:
- 在诊断时考虑瘤大小对于准确的癌症建模至关重要.
- 证据支持近年来乳腺癌,结肠直肠癌和甲状腺癌的早期癌症风险的真正增加.
- 开发的模型为剖析癌症发病率趋势和评估查有效性提供了一个强大的工具.
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