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在气候变化下,中国的Acorus calamus的地理分布动态

Chunlei Yue¹, Hepeng Li¹, Xiaodeng Shi¹

¹Zhejiang Academy of Forestry, Hangzhou 310023, China.

Plants (Basel, Switzerland)

|December 17, 2024

概括

阿科鲁斯·卡拉马斯的分布受到降水和人类足迹的影响. 未来的气候变化可能会向北扩大适合的息地,有助于保护和培养这种有价值的药用草本.

科学领域:

生态生态学生态生态学
生物地理学生物地理学生物地理学
保护生物学保护生物学

背景情况:

树 (Acorus calamus) 是一种有价值的多年草,由于野生资源减少而面临供需不平衡.
了解其地理分布和气候变化影响对于保护和种植至关重要.
现有的知识差距阻碍了对Acorus calamus的可持续管理.

研究的目的:

为了建模Acorus calamus的当前和未来潜在的地理分布.
确定影响其分布的关键环境因素.
为保护和种植策略提供理论基础.

主要方法:

利用266个分布记录和18个环境因素,通过ENMeval.com构建一个最佳的MaxEnt模型.
根据当前和未来的气候场景 (SSP126,SSP370,SSP585) 对2050年代,2070年代,2090年代的模拟潜在分布.
采用刀方法和响应曲线来确定影响因素及其值.

主要成果:

确定了最佳模型参数:正规化乘数 (RM) 为3.5,以及L,Q,H,P的特征组合 (FC).
主要因素:最潮湿月份的降雨量 (≥109.87毫米),人类足迹 (≥5.39),年降雨量 (≥388.56毫米) 和平均日间范围 (≤12.83°C).
预计未来的气候变化将增加适合Acorus calamus的地区,分布向北转移.

结论:

这项研究提供了在各种气候场景下对Acorus calamus分布的准确预测.
确定了Acorus calamus息地适合性的关键环境值.
这些发现支持可持续利用,生产规划和保护野生Acorus calamus生殖质.

关键词:

亚科鲁斯·卡拉姆斯 (英语:Acorus calamus) 是一个高的植物.恩米瓦尔 (ENMeval) 是一个包裹.马克斯恩特马克斯恩特人类人类人类人类人类人类人类土地使用情况土地使用情况

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