重新评估对民主的满意度的赢家-输家差距
Jean-François Daoust1,2, Miroslav Nemčok3, Philipp Broniecki3
1School of Applied Politics, Université de Sherbrooke, Sherbrooke, Québec, Canada.
PloS one
|December 17, 2024
概括
投票支持赢得胜利的政党的公民对民主的满意度并不比投票支持失败的政党的公民更高. 因果分析显示,在民主满意度方面没有"赢家-输家差距",这挑战了现有的政治学理论.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 比较政治比较政治比较政治
- 民主理论 民主理论
背景情况:
- 现有研究表明,执政政党的选民比反对派选民报告更高的民主满意度,称为"赢家-输家差距".
- 这种现象缺乏强有力的因果证据,主要依赖于相关性研究.
- 围绕政府形成的高度不确定性为研究这种效应提供了一个独特的背景.
研究的目的:
- 为公民对民主的满意度提供对投票给赢家与输家党的效果的因果估计.
- 测试广泛引用的"赢家-输家差距"在民主满意度中的有效性.
- 在政治不确定性很高的时期,在成熟的民主国家研究这种效应.
主要方法:
- 使用了在荷兰,挪威和冰岛政府组建公告之前和之后收集的调查数据.
- 采用回归不连续性设计来比较公民在选举结果 (获胜者或失败者) 确定之前和之后的民主满意度水平.
- 专注于关于新政府组建的高度不确定性的背景.
主要成果:
- 作为"赢家"或"输家"对公民对民主的满意度的因果影响被发现在统计学上是无法区分的.
- 该研究没有发现有意义的证据支持存在因果"赢家-输家差距".
- 选举结果,在政府与反对派的参与方面,在研究的背景下没有因果关系地影响民主满意度.
结论:
- 在民主满意度中被广泛认为的"赢家-输家差距"在因果评估时缺乏经验支持.
- 公民对民主的满意度不会受到他们支持的政党进入政府或留在反对派的重要影响.
- 这些发现需要对解释选举成功与公民对民主评价之间的关系的理论进行重新评估.
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