太阳能地球工程对温度归因死亡率的影响
Anthony Harding1, Gabriel A Vecchi2,3, Wenchang Yang2
1School of Public Policy, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA 30032.
概括
太阳能地球工程 (SG) 可以减少全球因变暖而导致的死亡,但影响因地区而异. 量化分析表明,好处可能超过直接风险,尽管仍存在不确定性.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 太阳能地球工程 (SG) 决策涉及平衡其风险与气候风险.
- 量化比较对于明智制定有关气候干预的公共政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 评估SG在减少与变暖相关的死亡率方面的有效性.
- 进行SG的好处和直接风险的第一次定量风险风险比较.
主要方法:
- 利用两个气候模型和温度归因死亡率的经济学分析.
- 综合死亡率估计与现有数据直接SG风险 (空气质量,紫外线癌症).
主要成果:
- SG对死亡率的影响不均:在更热,更贫穷的地区减少;在更冷,更富裕的地区增加.
- 通过SG的1°C降温可以将全球每年的死亡率减少40多万次.
- 估计死亡率利益超过直接风险的概率为61%,中央估计的好处是13倍.
结论:
- SG提供了潜在的死亡益处,可能会超过其直接风险,但区域影响不同.
- 本研究提供了对 SG 的基本定量风险风险评估,突出了需要进一步研究的领域.
- 尽管有强有力的调查结果,但存在重大不确定性,需要继续调查SG的复杂权衡.
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