在曾经结婚的孟加拉妇女中,与第一次分娩间隔时间相关的因素:对Cox-PH模型和参数模型的比较分析
Sarmistha Paul Setu1, Rasel Kabir1, Md Akhtarul Islam1,2
1Statistics Discipline, Science Engineering and Technology School, Khulna University, Khulna, Bangladesh.
PLOS global public health
|December 18, 2024
概括
日志-正常模型最好地识别了影响孟加拉妇女第一次分娩间隔 (FBI) 的因素. 关键因素包括教育,结婚年龄和避孕药的使用,这对于生育控制至关重要.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 生育率受到第一个出生间隔 (FBI) 的影响.
- 了解影响FBI的因素对于人口增长和生育管理至关重要.
- 这项研究重点关注曾经结婚的孟加拉妇女.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较考克斯比例危险 (Cox-PH) 和加速失效时间 (AFT) 模型的性能.
- 评估显著因素对时间到第一个出生间隔 (FBI) 的影响.
- 在孟加拉妇女中确定FBI的关键决定因素.
主要方法:
- 利用了来自14,941名曾经结婚的孟加拉妇女 (2017-18 BDHS) 的数据.
- 应用了Cox-PH和AFT模型与韦布尔,指数和日志常态分布.
- 使用Akaike信息标准 (AIC) 和贝叶斯信息标准 (BIC) 选择最合适的模型.
主要成果:
- 与其他模型相比,AFT模型中的日志正常分布提供了更好的匹配.
- 与FBI相关的重要因素包括妇女的年龄,第一次结婚的年龄,母亲/父亲的教育,避孕药的使用和配偶年龄差异.
- 参数式AFT模型 (日志-正常) 有效评估了影响FBI的共变量.
结论:
- 参数 AFT 模型,特别是日志正常分布,更适合分析影响第一个出生间隔的因素.
- 促进高等教育,适当的结婚年龄和计划生育知识 (避孕) 可以帮助控制生育和管理分娩间隔.
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