慢性阻塞性肺病负担归因于非最佳温度,1990-2044年:六个国家在相同的同温温度上
Zhengyang Shi1, Jianjiang Shao2, Chenxian Dong3
1Department of Preventive Medicine, School of Medicine, Shihezi University, No. 59, North 2nd Rd, Hong-Shan District, Shihezi, Xinjiang, 832003, China.
BMC public health
|December 18, 2024
概括
不理想的温度,特别是寒冷的天气,显著增加了死于慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的风险. 虽然大多数国家预计COPD死亡率将下降,但美国面临着上升趋势.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 呼吸系统医学 呼吸系统医学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 在全球范围内,极端天气事件正在增加,导致呼吸系统疾病导致死亡的风险更高.
- 非最佳温度对患有慢性阻塞性肺病 (COPD) 的个人构成重大负担.
研究的目的:
- 量化评估非最佳温度对COPD死亡率和生命损失的负担.
- 确定影响COPD死亡率的因素,包括温度,年龄,周期,队列和社会人口统计指数 (SDI).
- 预测COPD死亡率的未来趋势,可归因于非最佳温度.
主要方法:
- 利用2019年全球疾病负担 (GBD) 数据,分析COPD的年龄标准化死亡率 (ASMR) 和生命损失年率 (ASYR).
- 在六个国家使用年龄周期队列模型来分析死亡率趋势和贝叶斯模型来预测未来的ASMR.
- 应用受限立方线和量子回归来检查SDI和COPD负担之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 在2019年,由于非最佳温度而导致的COPDASMR因国家而异,中国报告的比例最高.
- 低温对COPD死亡率的影响比高温更大.
- 随着年龄的增长,死亡率增加,队列效应通常呈现下降趋势. 在SDI值在0.39-0.78.8之间的地区观察到较高的COPD负担.
- 预计COPDASMR在未来25年将在美国增加,而在其他研究的国家下降.
结论:
- 与高温相比,低温是COPD负担的一个更重要的因素.
- 性别,年龄,周期,队列和SDI都会影响与非最佳温度相关的COPD死亡率.
- 预计COPD死亡率将在未来25年内在全球范围内下降,但美国的这一例外显著.
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