对慢性血栓栓塞性肺病预测模型的开发和验证
Guixiang Liu1, Jing Wen2, Chunyi Lv1
1Department of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine, Shandong Provincial Hospital Affiliated to Shandong First Medical University, 9677 Jing Shi Road, Jinan, 250000, Shandong, China.
Respiratory research
|December 19, 2024
概括
一种新的预测模型有助于临床医生在急性肺栓塞 (APE) 后识别患有慢性血栓栓塞性肺病 (CTEPD) 高风险的患者. 这种工具有助于早期诊断和治疗CTEPD,改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 心脏病学 心脏病学
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 医学诊断 医学诊断 医学诊断
背景情况:
- 急性肺栓塞 (APE) 是一种严重的疾病,死亡率高.
- 很大一部分APE幸存者患有慢性血栓栓塞性肺病 (CTEPD),影响长期预后.
- 早期诊断CTEPD仍然是一个挑战,需要改进预测工具.
研究的目的:
- 建立和验证用于早期识别APE患者中CTEPD的预测模型.
- 确定与CTEPD发展相关的独立风险因素.
主要方法:
- 在7个中国中心对464名APE患者进行前性研究.
- 使用单变量和多变量逻辑回归识别的风险因素.
- 开发并通过决策曲线分析和ROC分析验证了一个名ogram预测模型.
主要成果:
- 28%的APE患者患有CTEPD;其中17%的患者进展为慢性血栓栓塞性肺高血压 (CTEPH).
- 慢性脊髓炎的独立预测因素包括:诊断延迟 (≥15天),复发性肺栓塞 (RPE),右心室功能障碍 (RVD),中心栓塞和残留性肺血管阻塞 (RPVO) >10%.
- 该名图显示出高预测性能 (C指数为0.895),AUC为0.908 (训练) 和0.875 (验证),用于早期CTEPD识别.
结论:
- 为预测CTEPD成功建立和验证了一种可靠的nomogram.
- 这种工具可以帮助临床医生更早地识别患有CTEPD高风险的患者.
- 较早的识别有助于及时干预,并可能改善APE幸存者患有CTEPD风险的结果.
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