贝叶斯的年龄-时期-队列预测的癌症在伊朗:一个建模研究研究
Hadis Barati1, Mohamad Amin Pourhoseingholi2, Gholamreza Roshandel3
1Department of Epidemiology of School of Public Health and Safety, Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences, Tehran, Iran.
BMC cancer
|December 19, 2024
概括
伊朗的癌症发病率正在上升,预测显示将继续增加. 贝叶斯年龄周期队列模型预测到2027年将有超过21万个新病例,突出了针对性预防策略的需要.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 癌症发病率是伊朗日益严重的公共卫生问题.
- 近年来,全国癌症病例显著增加.
研究的目的:
- 为了预测未来的总癌症发病率在伊朗.
- 使用贝叶斯年龄周期队列 (APC) 模型进行准确的预测.
主要方法:
- 采用年龄-时期-队列建模来分析2005-2017年的癌症发病率.
- 计算的净漂移,局部漂移和纵向年龄曲线.
- 使用贝叶斯式APC分析与嵌套拉普拉斯近似用于未来预测 (2018-2027年).
主要成果:
- 观察到年龄标准化发病率和总癌症病例的上升趋势.
- 净漂移表明男性的年增长率为1.79%,女性为3.31%.
- 预计到2027年,约有210,701例新的癌症病例,年龄标准化率 (ASR) 为每10万人中240.32.
结论:
- 迫切需要有针对性的预防策略,考虑到人口和生活方式的变化.
- 强大的癌症登记册对于持续监测的重要性.
- 基于证据的干预措施对于管理不断增加的癌症发病率至关重要.
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