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准牛顿优化的科尔摩戈罗夫-阿诺德网络用于风电场电力预测
Auwalu Saleh Mubarak1,2, Zubaida Said Ameen1,3, Sagiru Mati1,4
1Operational Research Centre in Healthcare, Near East University, TRNC Mersin 10, Nicosia, 99138, Turkey.
Heliyon
|December 19, 2024
概括
精确的风能预测对于智能电网至关重要. 科尔莫戈罗夫-阿诺德网络 (KAN) 与LBFGS优化相结合,在预测风电场发电量方面表现优于传统模型,提高了电网稳定性.
科学领域:
- 可再生能源系统可再生能源系统
- 人工智能在能源中的作用
- 计算智能是一种计算智能.
背景情况:
- 有效的风能预测对于智能电网集成和能源管理至关重要.
- 与人工智能相比,传统的统计模型在准确性和可预测性方面存在局限性.
- 风能固有的不稳定性需要先进的预测方法来实现可靠的发电.
研究的目的:
- 评估Kolmogorov-Arnold网络 (KAN) 与多层感知器 (MLP) 的性能,用于风电场电力预测.
- 研究KAN独特的架构和激活函数在解决MLP限制方面的有效性.
- 展示一个改进的风能预测模型,采用先进的预处理和优化技术.
主要方法:
- 利用科尔摩戈罗夫-阿诺德网络 (KAN) 和多层感知器 (MLP) 来预测中国六个风电场的名义功率.
- 在KAN中使用可学习的B-Spline激活函数和用高斯核的辐射基函数 (RBF).
- 应用了有限内存的布劳登-弗莱彻-戈德法布-沙诺 (LBFGS) 优化,用于异常值处理的四分区间范围 (IQR),以及缺失数据的K-最近邻居 (KNN) 归算.
主要成果:
- KAN-LBFGS模型在各种评估指标上表现出卓越的表现.
- 第5站点实现了0.0039的平均平方误差 (MSE),0.062的根平均平方误差 (RMSE),0.0352的平均绝对误差 (MAE) 和0.9468.8的确定系数 (DC).
- 与传统的MLP相比,KAN-MLP在可扩展性,梯度处理和可解释性方面表现出优势.
结论:
- 该研究证实了KAN-LBFGS在风能预测方面的优势,与传统方法相比.
- 模型架构,数据预处理和优化技术对于准确的风力发电预测至关重要.
- 这些发现支持将KAN等先进的人工智能模型集成到智能电网基础设施中,以加强能源管理.
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