在宿主流动性,生产力和免疫能力方面,甲基人群的异质性总是会增加毒性和传染性
Masato Sato1,2, Ulf Dieckmann3,4,5, Akira Sasaki3,4,5
1Department of Evolutionary Studies of Biosystems, The Graduate University for Advanced Studies, SOKENDAI, Hayama, Kanagawa 240-0193, Japan.
概括
由于流动性,生产力或免疫力的变化,人口的异质性始终提高了病原体的毒性和传染性. 这种影响与当地条件的变异成正比,并与病原体的繁殖值有关.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 进化生物学 进化生物学
- 数学建模的数学建模
背景情况:
- 病原体进化发生在宿主种群中,这些种群很少是统一的.
- 主体经常与相互连接的本地人口形成元群体,经历不同的条件.
- 了解这些复杂环境中的病原体进化对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发一种病原体进化在异质的超群体中的一般理论.
- 在这种环境中确定影响病原体毒性和传染性的关键因素.
- 提供关于病原体在异质世界中传播的风险日益增加的见解.
主要方法:
- 开发了病原体进化的一般理论框架.
- 分析了不同当地人口的流动性,生产力和免疫能力的影响.
- 研究了不同的流行病学模型 (SI,SIS,SIR,SIRS) 和传播动态.
主要成果:
- 移动性,生产力或免疫能力的异质性始终会增加病原体的毒性和传染性.
- 毒性增加与当地条件的变化大致成比例.
- 病毒性增加的原因是局部选择压力和病原体繁殖值之间的共变性.
- 组合的异质性会放大毒性,特别是在积极的协差的情况下.
结论:
- 变种群异质性是致病原体毒性和传染性增加的重要驱动因素.
- 在各种流行病学模型和传播类型中,研究结果是可靠的.
- 全球越来越多的异质性,如城市化,可能会加剧病原体传播的风险.
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