整体息地适应性模型预测了苏埃达沙尔萨的分布和对极端气候事件的适应性
Meiyu Guo1, Linquan Cao2, Jianyu Dong3
1Fishery College, Zhejiang Ocean University, Zhoushan, 316022, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Coastal Ecosystem, National Marine Environmental Monitoring Center, Dalian, 116023, China.
Journal of environmental management
|December 19, 2024
概括
气候异常威胁到沿海盐沼地区. 一个整体模型预测了Suaeda Salsa的恢复,显示息地增加,但由于地下生物质较低,弹性降低,需要适应性管理.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 湿地管理 湿地管理
背景情况:
- 沿海湿地面临着气候异常带来的越来越大的威胁,导致极端温度和干旱.
- 盐沼植物,如Suaeda Salsa,经历了更高的生存压力,影响息地的适宜性和生态系统的弹性.
- 有效的恢复和管理策略需要准确预测植被对气候驱动干扰的反应.
研究的目的:
- 评估Suaeda Salsa在Liaohe河口湿地的干扰后恢复和弹性.
- 开发和验证一个集体模型来预测息地适宜性和植被动态.
- 确定影响Suaeda Salsa分布和回收的关键环境因素.
主要方法:
- 开发和应用一个整体模型来评估息地适合Suaeda Salsa.
- 分析密度和形态指标,以评估生态系统的弹性.
- 使用真实技能统计 (TSS) 和接收器操作特征曲线 (AUC) 下的区域进行统计验证.
主要成果:
- 整体模型显示了高的预测性能 (TSS: 0.94-0.96,AUC: 0.96-0.97).
- 潮升高和土壤盐度是主要的息地预测因素;沙子含量影响了扩张.
- 适宜息地面积显著增加 (63%),但地下生物质减少,表明弹性降低.
结论:
- 苏埃达沙尔萨在息地和地表生物量中显示出恢复迹象,但地下储量减少表明对未来压力的脆弱性.
- 优化淡水灌和建造潮通道是推的恢复策略.
- 开发的评估方法适用于其他河口植物修复项目.
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