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通过邮件测量丢失的选票
Marc Meredith1, Michael Morse2, Amaya Madarang1
1Department of Political Science, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA USA.
Science advances
|December 20, 2024
概括
邮票投票的程序要求可能会导致"失去了选票". 宾夕法尼亚州的一项研究发现,丢失的邮票至少比拒绝的选票多47%,这可能会影响选举结果.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 选举管理局 选举管理局
- 投票行为 投票行为
背景情况:
- 邮票投票的扩大引发了人们对程序要求的担忧,导致投票丢失.
- 了解拒绝的邮票和实际丢失的选票之间的差异对于选举的完整性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 理论化程序要求如何影响丢失邮件投票的发生率和形式.
- 识别在将丢失的选票与被拒绝的邮票等同时的测量问题.
- 在现实世界选举中,量化丢失的邮票与拒绝的选票的比例.
主要方法:
- 理论框架的发展影响失败邮票投票的因素.
- 测量问题的分析:覆盖,替代和威.
- 宾夕法尼亚州2022年大选数据的案例研究.
主要成果:
- 被拒绝的邮票可能不准确地反映了丢失的邮票总数.
- 宾夕法尼亚州2022年大选显示,丢失的邮票票数量至少比丢弃的选票数量多47%.
- 丢失的选票数量可能具有选举意义,特别是在党派投票差异的情况下.
结论:
- 将丢失的邮票与拒绝的选票等同是有缺陷的测量方法.
- 程序要求可能会导致大量未计数的邮票投票.
- 对丢失的邮票进行处理对于确保公平和准确的选举结果至关重要.
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