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在气候模型中模拟的南极海冰变异性中人为强迫的作用
Yushi Morioka1, Liping Zhang2,3, William Cooke2
1Application Laboratory, VAiG, JAMSTEC, Yokohama, Japan. morioka@jamstec.go.jp.
Nature communications
|December 20, 2024
概括
南极海冰的减少正在加速. 深层对流驱动着人类不断强迫的变化,但随着人类影响的增长,像南方环状模式这样的大气模式变得越来越有影响,影响未来的海冰趋势.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
- 大气科学 大气科学
背景情况:
- 南极海冰面积在几十年轻微增加后,最近出现了急剧下降.
- 人类引起的气候变化与自然变化的确切作用在这一趋势中尚未完全理解.
研究的目的:
- 通过结合模型实验,研究南极洲年间海冰变化的驱动因素.
- 了解不同驱动因素的影响如何随着人为强迫的增加而变化.
主要方法:
- 进行了一系列结合模型实验,模拟南极海冰.
- 分析了持续且不断增加的人为强迫作用对海冰变异性的影响.
- 调查了深度对流和南环状模式 (SAM) 的作用.
主要成果:
- 随着人类的不断强迫,南大洋的深层对流是跨年海冰变化的主要驱动因素,尽管这取决于模型.
- 随着人类强迫的增加,深度对流的影响力减少.
- 南方年状模式 (SAM) 成为海冰波动的重要驱动因素,与大气模式的转变有关.
结论:
- 深层对流是南极海冰变化的关键驱动因素,特别是在较低的人为强迫下.
- 人为强迫的增加将海冰变化的主要驱动因素转移到像SAM这样的大气模式.
- 预计地表空海相互作用将在未来南极海冰变化中发挥更为关键的作用.
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