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基于Biomod2的气候变化下的Ammannia coccinea的全球地理分布和生态利基动态的估计
YanJing Zhang1, Jie Hu1, ChenBin Wang1
1Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences, Ministry of Environmental Environment, State Key Laboratory of Environmental Protection and Biosafety, Nanjing, 210042, China.
Scientific reports
|December 20, 2024
概括
预计由于气候变化,威胁大米作物的入侵植物Ammannia coccinea将在全球范围内扩大其适合的息地. 早期检测和控制对于大米安全和生物多样性保护至关重要.
科学领域:
- 生态生态学 生态生态学
- 侵入性物种 生物学 生物学
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 气候变化影响评估
背景情况:
- 侵入性外来植物,如Ammannia coccinea,严重威胁生物多样性和农业经济.
- 阿曼尼亚菌 (Ammannia coccinea) 通过在田中竞争,对大米生产构成直接威胁.
- 关于阿曼尼亚菌的全球分布和生态利基动态的研究有限,这阻碍了有效的管理.
研究的目的:
- 在各种气候场景下分析Ammannia coccinea目前和未来的地理分布.
- 量化和分析Ammannia coccinea生态利基中的变化.
- 为开发早期预警和控制战略提供见解,以减轻对大米生产和生物多样性的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用Biomod2平台进行组合建模,整合环境和物种发生数据.
- 分析了当前和未来气候场景下的分布范围变化和生态利基动态.
- 确定了影响物种分布的关键环境因素,包括温度,降水和人类影响指数.
主要成果:
- 在南北美洲,南美洲,欧洲,中东,非洲和亚洲,已经确定了适合Ammannia coccinea的潜在地区.
- 预计随着时间的推移,中高适宜性息地将逐渐增加.
- 虽然整体的生态利基保持稳定,但预计会有轻微的变化,气候变化推动息地扩张.
结论:
- 气候变化是Ammannia coccinea适合区域的扩张和生态的转移的一个重要驱动因素.
- 影响分布的关键因素包括温度,降水和人类的影响.
- 战略干预对于阿曼尼亚菌的潜在分布与重要的水种植区重叠的地区至关重要,以确保全球水安全并保护生物多样性.
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