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葡萄牙阿伦泰乔地区的历史和未来与高温相关的死亡率
Dora Neto1, Miguel Bastos Araújo2,3
1Rui Nabeiro Biodiversity Chair, MED - Mediterranean Institute for Agriculture, Environment and Development & CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Universidade de Évora, Largo dos Colegiais, Évora, 7004-516, Portugal. doraneto@uevora.pt.
BMC public health
|December 20, 2024
概括
极端高温显著增加死亡风险,每年导致数千人因高温死亡. 如果没有缓解措施,到2100年,与热相关的死亡率可能会增加15%以上,这凸显了公共卫生政策的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 气候变化的影响 气候变化的影响
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球气候变化和极端天气事件正在增加与热应激相关的死亡率.
- 葡萄牙的阿伦泰乔地区 (Alentejo) 是一个温度高的地区,特别容易受到影响.
- 了解历史和未来的热量对死亡率的影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析热量对葡萄牙阿伦特乔州死亡率的历史短期影响.
- 预测未来的与热相关的死亡率趋势,直到21世纪末.
- 评估不同气候变化场景和适应战略的影响.
主要方法:
- 对每日死亡率和平均温度 (1980-2015) 的病例时间序列分析.
- 利用区域气候模型和代表度路径 (RCP) 场景进行预测.
- 在热浪期间量化过度死亡率和预计的未来影响,考虑到适应.
主要成果:
- 死亡风险在19.0°C以上显著增加,呈指数级增长,影响延迟至5天.
- 在36.6°C观察到413%的死亡风险增加;2.32%的死亡 (超过5,296) 在1980-2015年与热量相关.
- 预测显示,在没有缓解的情景下,到2100年死亡率可能增加15.88%,如果缓解,可能减少到6.61%.
结论:
- 迫切需要采取保护性卫生政策,以减轻与热相关的死亡率.
- 阿伦特乔州居民对热应激的脆弱性需要立即关注.
- 积极的措施是必要的,以防止在整个世纪的过早死亡.
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