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通过采用MaxEnt模型,预测在气候变化下阿斯特拉加利在中国的潜在分布

Zixuan Wen¹, Ke Yan², Man Zhang²

¹School of Public Health, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China.

Frontiers in plant science

|December 23, 2024

概括

气候变化正在扩大适合Astragali Radix种植的区域,特别是在中国北部和新疆. 这种传统中医药的植物.

科学领域:

药用植物学医学植物学
气候变化影响评估
计算生态学计算生态学

背景情况:

作为传统中医药的重要组成部分,阿斯特拉加利根基面临着日益增长的市场需求.
环境条件显著影响阿斯特拉加利的生长,需要确定合适的种植区.
了解气候变化影响对于确保稳定供应高品质的阿斯特拉加利根茎至关重要.

研究的目的:

预测气候变化对Astragali Radix分布的潜在影响.
确定Astragali Radix.目前和未来适合种植的种植区.
为优化Astragali Radix种植策略提供科学基础.

主要方法:

使用最大 (MaxEnt) 模型和地理信息系统 (GIS) 进行分布建模.
在各种气候变化场景下分析了分布数据和环境变量 (SSP126,SSP245,SSP585).
采用杰克刀分析来确定影响Astragali Radix分布的环境变量的重要性.

主要成果:

目前Astragali Radix的适合面积为188.41平方公里,预计在未来的气候情景下会增加.
北中国仍然是一个主要的适合地区,而中国西南地区显示下降,新疆成为一个新的适合地区.
关键的环境驱动因素包括年降水量,海拔,地表碳酸,平均温度,降水季节性和地表pH值.

结论:

预计在未来的气候变化情景下,适合Astragali Radix种植的区域将会扩大.
建议专注于在已确定合适的地区加强种植技术.
该研究为Astragali Radix资源的战略规划和空间管理提供了科学基础.

关键词:

阿斯特拉加利雷迪克斯 (Astragali Radix) 是一个气候变化气候变化气候变化环境因素环境因素地理信息系统是一个地理信息系统.最大的模型模型.适合的区域适合的区域.

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