病原和腐烂微生物的综合随机建模
Nikola Maciejewska1, Constantine-Richard Stefanou2, Leonardos Stathas2
1Department of Food Quality, Prof. Waclaw Dabrowski Institute of Agriculture and Food Biotechnology State Research Institute Lodz Poland.
EFSA journal. European Food Safety Authority
|December 23, 2024
概括
将食物腐烂纳入定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 中,可以防止高估疾病风险. 这种新的QMRA模型通过考虑消费者对腐败的反应,准确地估计了肉制品中的菌病风险.
科学领域:
- 食品微生物学 食品微生物学
- 风险评估 风险评估 风险评估
- 消费科学是一门消费科学.
背景情况:
- 定量微生物风险评估 (QMRA) 已为食品传播病原体建立,但尚未完全应用于食品腐败.
- 现有的QMRA模型可能会高估健康风险,因为不考虑消费者拒绝腐烂的食物.
- 消费者对损坏的反应对于准确的风险评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证食品安全的综合QMRA模型,包括食品腐败.
- 评估消费者对腐烂的反应对疾病风险估计的影响.
- 评估模型在肉类行业对风险管理决策的有用性.
主要方法:
- 使用感官数据开发了一种损坏-反应关系,以将损坏水平与消费者拒绝联系起来.
- 与乳酸细菌 (LAB) 和Listeria monocytogenes生长的随机QMRA模型集成了腐烂-反应关系.
- 考虑到LAB和L. monocytogenes之间的微生物相互作用 (詹姆森效应),以提高模型的准确性.
主要成果:
- 综合的QMRA模型表明,与基线方法相比,估计的李斯特菌病例存在显著差异.
- "损坏信息"的QMRA方法对不同消费者年龄组的风险计算产生了显著的影响.
- 结果支持这样一个假设:忽视腐烂可能会导致高估病原体相关的健康风险.
结论:
- 开发的综合QMRA模型通过包括腐烂,更准确地估计了食品安全风险.
- 这种方法可以完善风险管理策略,特别是在肉类行业.
- 考虑到消费者对损坏的看法对于现实的健康风险评估至关重要.
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