可检测使用ENSO关于南非作物生产的信息
Erin Coughlan de Perez1,2, Weston Anderson3,4, Eunjin Han5
1Feinstein International Center, Friedman School of Nutrition Science and Policy, Tufts University, USA.
Climate services
|December 24, 2024
概括
厄尔尼诺现象影响南非农业,减少玉米和种植和干旱期间的产量. 然而,该研究发现,准确的季节性降雨预测没有产量益处.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 粮食安全 粮食安全
背景情况:
- 厄尔尼诺南部振荡 (ENSO) 事件与南非降雨量减少有关.
- 农民可以获得季节性降雨预报,但其实际用途和益处尚不清楚.
- 了解农民对气候信息的反应对于农业的弹性至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查南非ENSO知识相关的农业选择和结果的宏观层面模式.
- 评估ENSO和季节性降雨预报对作物面积和产量的影响.
主要方法:
- 分析非洲南部农作物种植面积和产量的国家以下数据.
- 统计检查ENSO事件,降雨量和农业结果之间的关系.
- 控制降雨变化,以隔离ENSO对产量的特定影响.
主要成果:
- 莱索托和南非部分地区在与厄尔尼诺现象相吻合的干旱期间观察到玉米和的种植面积减少.
- 与厄尔尼诺相关的干旱年导致与非厄尔尼诺干旱年相比,作物产量显著下降.
- 从季节性降雨预报的准确性中没有发现明显的收益.
结论:
- 南非的农民可能会调整农业做法 (例如,减少种植面积),以应对与厄尔尼诺有关的干旱风险.
- 与厄尔尼诺现象相关的干旱条件,除了降雨量减少的直接影响外,还会对作物产量产生负面影响.
- 该研究没有发现证据表明,季节性预测准确度的提高转化为在宏观层面上可观察到的收益率改善.
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