墨西哥与高温有关的死亡率:对极端高温影响和市级脆弱性的多层次空间分析
Lara Schwarz1, Chen Chen2, Javier Emmanuel Castillo Quiñones3
1School of Public Health, San Diego State University, San Diego, CA, USA; Herbert Wertheim School of Public Health and Longevity Science, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, CA, USA; Division of Environmental Health Sciences, School of Public Health, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, USA.
Environment international
|December 25, 2024
概括
极端高温显著增加了墨西哥各地的死亡风险. 在人口老龄化,教育程度较低,住房贫困的城市,脆弱性更高,这凸显了有针对性的公共卫生干预措施的必要性.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 极端高温对公众健康构成重大风险,社会决定因素影响脆弱性.
- 了解与热有关的死亡率的空间变化对于有效的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析墨西哥各地极端高温对死亡率的影响的空间异质性.
- 确定社会人口因素,有助于在市级的差异性热脆弱性.
主要方法:
- 利用了每日所有原因死亡率数据和特定于市镇的极端高温事件 (1998-2019).
- 采用时间分层的案例交叉和贝叶斯层次模型进行州和市级分析.
- 进行随机效应元回归以探索空间异质性的社会人口预测因素.
主要成果:
- 极端高温事件与墨西哥各地的死亡率增加有关.
- 在塔巴斯科州,在州一级观察到死亡率影响最高.
- 市级分析揭示了显著的空间差异,老年人口,边缘化社区和教育程度较低,住房较差的地区的风险更高.
结论:
- 极端高温不成比例地影响弱势群体,需要基于地方的公共卫生战略.
- 识别和优先考虑面临风险的社区对于减轻极端高温事件的负担至关重要.
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