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[基于LEAP模型的江苏省关键行业的碳峰值和碳中性情景]
Chuang Luo1, Lin Li1, Yu-Hao Wang1
1School of Energy and Mechanical Engineering, Nanjing Normal University, Nanjing 210046, China.
Huan jing ke xue= Huanjing kexue
|December 25, 2024
概括
江苏省可以通过实施政策和促进创新来实现碳中和,大大减少能源需求和碳排放. 战略性工业重组和技术升级是关键,尽管需要监测运输部门的排放.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 能源政策 能源政策
- 气候变化缓解缓解 气候变化缓解
背景情况:
- 江苏省面临着日益增长的能源需求和碳排放,这对国家碳峰值和碳中和目标构成挑战.
- 未来的能源消耗和排放轨迹需要详细的场景分析来为有效的气候战略提供信息.
研究的目的:
- 制定战略,在江苏省实现碳峰值和碳中和.
- 根据各种政策干预措施,预测未来的能源需求和碳排放场景.
主要方法:
- 利用长期能源替代计划 (LEAP) 模型进行基于场景的预测.
- 根据基线,政策实施,可持续发展和创新促进情景,分析了2021年至2060年的能源需求和碳排放.
主要成果:
- 基线情景预计到2060年,能源需求将增加2.35倍,碳排放量将增加到5.99亿.
- 政策实施,可持续发展和创新促进情景显示显著的能源减少 (45.98%-86.13%) 和碳排放减缓,排放量在2025-2030年达到峰值.
- 工业排放量正在下降,建筑排放量稳定,但运输排放量呈上升趋势.
结论:
- 江苏省具有巨大的节能潜力,可以通过工业重组和技术进步实现逐步减少碳排放.
- 积极的政策实施和创新对于实现碳目标至关重要.
- 交通运输部门排放量的上升趋势需要有针对性的干预和持续监测.
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