在接受第一线化疗的乳腺癌患者骨转移的预后因素,预测建模和治疗模式:基于人口的研究
Xin Fu1, Pengfei Cai1, Zhengqiang Yan1
1The Orthopedics Department, Affiliated Jinhua Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, 321000 Jinhua, Zhejiang, China.
Annali italiani di chirurgia
|December 26, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测接受化疗的骨转移乳腺癌患者的存活率. 该工具准确地识别出预后因素,帮助个性化治疗策略,改善患者的治疗结果.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 接受一线化疗的乳腺癌 (BC) 骨转移 (BM) 患者的预后因素尚未确立.
- 准确预测整体存活率 (OS) 对于这一群体的治疗计划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定接受一线化疗的BC患者的BC患者的独立预后因素.
- 构建和验证用于预测这个患者群体的OS的诺米克图.
主要方法:
- 从监测,流行病学和最终结果 (SEER) 数据库 (2010-2016) 获取2996名BC患者的BM.
- 使用单变量和多变量考克斯回归分析确定了预后因素.
- 使用培训 (n=2100) 和内部验证 (n=896) 队列构建和验证了一个名录,用ROC曲线,校准曲线和DCA评估性能.
主要成果:
- 确定年龄,瘤大小,种族,等级,亚型和大脑,肝脏或肺转移的存在,以及手术干预和婚姻状况,作为独立的预后因素.
- 该名图显示,在1年,2年和3年的OS中,与曲线下的区域 (AUC) 存在严重的歧视,在培训队列中从0.756到0.803,在验证队列中从0.756到0.793不等.
- 诺米图表表现出极好的校准和临床实用性.
结论:
- 已开发并验证了一种可靠的诺姆图,用于预测接受一线化疗的乳腺癌患者的存活率.
- 这种预测模型可以帮助临床医生量身定制个性化治疗策略.
- 诺米图有潜力通过使更精确的预后评估来改善患者的治疗结果.
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