在低收入国家预计会有更多的双胞胎,在出生时母亲的年龄较晚,以及人口增长
D Susie Lee1, Kieron J Barclay1,2,3
1Laboratory of Fertility and Well-Being, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Human reproduction (Oxford, England)
|December 26, 2024
概括
预计未来的双胞胎生育率将在低收入国家上升,原因是孕产妇年龄增加和人口增长. 预计这一趋势将持续到2100年,需要对双胞胎及其家人给予更多的公共卫生关注.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 生殖健康 生殖健康
- 人口研究 人口研究
背景情况:
- 许多低收入国家,特别是在撒哈拉以南非洲和南亚,正在经历人口结构的转变,即母亲出生时的年龄越来越大.
- 先进的孕产妇年龄是影响个体水平上多胎产生的可能性的一个已知的因素.
- 随着母亲年龄结构的变化,在低收入国家对双胞胎生育率的影响仍然在很大程度上未得到量化.
研究的目的:
- 调查到2050年和2100年在低收入国家内生率的预测变化.
- 评估母亲年龄结构的变化和人口增长对未来双胞胎出生数量的影响.
主要方法:
- 根据人口健康调查和世界生育调查的数据,估计了特定年龄的双胞胎概率.
- 将这些概率应用于联合国世界人口前景 (WPP) 对未来出生的预测.
- 分析了从1980年到2015年的约319万例出生,这些出生发生在39个医疗辅助生殖 (MAR) 普及率较低的国家.
主要成果:
- 预计到2050年,在大多数低收入国家,结对率将增加 (增长0.3%63%) 并且到2100年 (增长3.5%79%).
- 预计印度和尼日利亚的双胞胎出生数量最大,这是由于人口规模和高双胞胎率.
- 尽管人口增长,但到2100年,印度的双胞胎出生率可能下降10.5%.
结论:
- 预计在低收入国家,双胞胎生育率和双胞胎出生人数将增加,这是由母亲年龄上升和人口增长所推动的,即使有限的MAR.
- 潜在的偏见存在,因为它依赖于母亲回忆过去的出生.
- 调查结果强调,由于相关的健康和发育风险,需要增加对公众健康的关注和对低收入环境中的双胞胎及其家庭的社会支持.
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