中国河流域未来的排水趋势:碳排放路径的影响
Tingsheng Chen1, Zhen Han1, Fayong Fang1
1College of Forestry, Guizhou University, Guiyang, 550025, China.
Journal of environmental management
|December 26, 2024
概括
气候变化将对河流域产生重大影响.
科学领域:
- 水文和气候科学 水文和气候科学
- 环境建模环境建模
- 水资源管理 水资源管理
背景情况:
- 全球经济发展加剧了气候变暖对水文循环的影响.
- 人类活动加剧了排水变化,特别是在脆弱的盆地.
- 了解不同碳排放场景下的未来排放动态至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在低碳和高碳排放路径下,分析曼河流域的排水演变.
- 评估气候变化对21世纪末降水,温度和排水的影响.
- 为土壤和水资源保护和生态保护战略提供见解.
主要方法:
- 使用了土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型,经过高精度验证 (R2 > 0.65,NSE > 0.8).
- 将气候场景分为"低碳" (SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5) 和"高碳" (SSP3-7.0,SSP5-8.5) 路径.
- 分析了近期 (2021-2060) 和远期 (2061-2100) 的下游变化.
主要成果:
- SWAT模型显示出高度适用性,ESCO和SOL_AWC被确定为敏感参数.
- 预计的趋势包括降水变化增加和到2100年温度上升1.37至5.02°C.
- 预计在高碳路径下,排水量将显著增加 (变化高达30.65%),在低碳路径下,增长速度较慢但加速.
结论:
- 气候变化将导致河流域的气候变暖和潮湿.
- 降水仍然是流水变化的主要驱动因素,尽管温度的影响将会越来越大.
- 研究结果支持在脆弱地区进行水资源管理和生态保护的适应性战略.
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