上层土壤元素对希腊农村癌症死亡率的整体影响:一个建模方法
Amalia Katsifara1, George Tsirogiannis2, Eleni Sazakli1
1Lab of Public Health, Medical School, University of Patras, GR-26504, Greece.
Chemosphere
|December 26, 2024
概括
上层土壤元素如和可能会影响希腊农村人口的癌症发病率. 机器学习模型在基于土壤地质化学的癌症死亡率预测中显示出高准确度,特别是在年轻年龄组.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 地质化学 地质化学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 癌症死亡率在地理位置上有所不同,可能与环境因素有关.
- 了解土壤地质化学在癌症分布中的作用对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 农村地区具有独特的环境暴露特征.
研究的目的:
- 调查土壤表层元素度与希腊农村城市癌症死亡率之间的关联.
- 开发基于土壤地质化学的癌症死亡率预测模型.
- 确定特定的因素及其影响不同年龄组癌症风险的相互作用.
主要方法:
- 生态研究分析了来自61个希腊农村市镇的癌症死亡率数据 (2000-2015年).
- 使用了来自GEMAS项目的表层土壤元素数据 (Mn,Ni,Pb,Be,As,Cd).
- 应用机器学习模型,根据多元素土壤度预测低/高癌症死亡率.
主要成果:
- 机器学习模型实现了高预测准确度 (在0-29岁年龄组中高达83.3%).
- 预测准确度随着年龄的增加而下降,在高达59岁的年龄段变得显著.
- 特定元素 (Mn,As,Ni,Be) 在预测不同年龄层的癌症死亡率方面具有不同的重要性.
结论:
- 表面土壤的元素组成似乎共同影响农村人口中的癌症频率和地理分布.
- 地化学测绘与健康数据相结合,为了解环境癌症风险提供了一种强有力的方法.
- 需要进一步的研究来阐明土壤元素对癌症的影响机制.
相关概念视频
Cancer Survival Analysis
328
Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...
328
Study Designs in Epidemiology
180
Epidemiological study designs are fundamental tools for investigating the distribution, determinants, and control of health conditions in populations. They help researchers understand the relationships between exposures and outcomes, and they broadly fall into two categories: "observational" and "experimental" studies.
Observational studies are those where the researcher does not intervene but rather observes natural variations. They include cross-sectional, cohort, and...
Observational studies are those where the researcher does not intervene but rather observes natural variations. They include cross-sectional, cohort, and...
180
Cancer Prevention
6.0K
Several factors can increase the risk of cancer in an individual. About 50% of cancer cases can be prevented by adopting a healthy lifestyle, regular exercise, eating healthy, and following a modest cancer prevention diet. Epidemiological studies have consistently shown that populations with vegetable and fruit-rich diets have reduced the incidence of cancer. On the other hand, populations who have a diet rich in animal fat, red meat, junk food, or high calories are predisposed to cancer.
Some...
Some...
6.0K
Comparing the Survival Analysis of Two or More Groups
149
Survival analysis is a cornerstone of medical research, used to evaluate the time until an event of interest occurs, such as death, disease recurrence, or recovery. Unlike standard statistical methods, survival analysis is particularly adept at handling censored data—instances where the event has not occurred for some participants by the end of the study or remains unobserved. To address these unique challenges, specialized techniques like the Kaplan-Meier estimator, log-rank test, and...
149
Causality in Epidemiology
291
Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
291
Actuarial Approach
61
The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...
61


