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感知气候风险和股票价格:对定价影响的经验分析
Hachmi Ben Ameur1, Daniel Dao2,3, Zied Ftiti4
1INSEEC Grande Ecole, Omnes Education Group, Paris, France.
Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|December 27, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了从Twitter数据中获得的感知气候风险,作为资产定价的一个因素. 调查结果显示,这种感知到的气候风险影响了标普500指数的股票回报.
科学领域:
- 环境金融 环境金融
- 气候风险评估 气候风险评估
- 行为金融是行为金融.
背景情况:
- 越来越多的人意识到气候变化对金融市场的影响.
- 对感知到的气候风险定价的研究有限.
- 需要在资产定价中纳入气候风险的模型.
研究的目的:
- 将感知到的气候风险引入资产定价模型中的新因素.
- 量化感知到的气候风险对股票回报的影响.
- 分析气候情绪与金融市场之间的关系.
主要方法:
- 利用一套包含1600万条推特 (2010-2019) 的数据集来衡量气候变化情绪.
- 开发了感知气候风险的代理,捕捉物理和过渡风险.
- 应用了各种资产定价模型来测试气候风险对标准普尔500指数回报的意义.
主要成果:
- 感知到的气候风险是定价标准普尔500指数 (S&P 500) 股票回报的一个统计学上显著的因素.
- 对感知到的气候风险的定价在不同的资产定价模型中是稳定的.
- 这些发现凸显了市场对气候变化情绪的反应.
结论:
- 感知到的气候风险是金融市场中一个关键的定价因素.
- 了解这种关系有助于投资者和政策制定者在应对与气候有关的金融风险.
- 准确的资产定价模型,包括感知到的气候风险,对于可持续金融至关重要.
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