宏观与微观初始化和海洋初始条件记忆对整体分布在CESM2大整体分布的演变的影响
Clara Deser1,2, Who M Kim1, Robert C J Wills3
1NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO USA.
概括
气候模型中的初始化方法影响了整体传播,特别是在热带印度-太平洋. 海洋记忆,特别是来自大西洋南部翻转循环,几十年来影响了气候变化.
科学领域:
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地球系统建模模型
- 海洋学 海洋学 海洋学
背景情况:
- 单一模型初始条件 大型组合 (SMILEs) 对于理解内部气候变化和强制气候变化至关重要.
- 中小企业的初始化程序会影响初始条件记忆,影响整体平均和扩散解释.
- 社区地球系统模型版本2 (CESM2) SMILE提供了一个独特的数据集来分析这些影响.
研究的目的:
- 调查初始化方法 (微观与宏观扰动) 在CESM2 SMILE中如何影响整体传播.
- 检查海洋初始条件记忆的持续时间和特征,特别是与大西洋南部翻转循环 (AMOC) 相关的记忆.
- 为未来的SMILE实验设计提供建议.
主要方法:
- 对100个成员的CESM2 SMILE数据集的分析.
- 调查集体传播对微观与宏观扰动的依赖性初始化.
- 评估初始条件记忆的持续时间和空间模式,专注于AMOC状态.
主要成果:
- 随机传播进化在二十年后对初始化方法基本上不敏感,除了在热带印度太平洋地区在第四个十年内进行宏观初始化.
- AMOC初始条件记忆表现为两个阶段:北大西洋 (4-5 十年) 和南大洋 (延迟,初始化后 35 年,持续 3-4 十年).
- 延迟南洋记忆对AMOC及其机制的依赖需要进一步的研究.
结论:
- 选择的初始化方法对整体传播的长期影响有限,有显著的区域例外.
- 在长时间内,AMOC显著影响不同海洋盆地的气候变化.
- 了解这些记忆效应对于设计未来有效的气候建模实验至关重要.
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