监管政策工具对印度塑料废物产生的影响:一个系统动态方法
Nishith Jardosh1, Vinish Kathuria2
1Shailesh J Mehta School of Management (SJMSOM) of Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Bombay, Mumbai, India.
概括
印度 印度 印度
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 废物管理研究 废物管理研究
- 政策分析 政策分析
背景情况:
- 像印度这样的新兴经济体面临着重大的塑料废物挑战,每年超过一半的消费量成为废物.
- 印度政府于2022年实施了塑料废物管理规则,以解决日益严重的塑料废物问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估印度塑料废物管理规则对塑料废物产生到2050年的预期影响.
- 模拟塑料流和废物管理政策工具的有效性.
主要方法:
- 一种两步模拟方法,结合材料流分析和系统动态建模.
- 材料流分析绘制了塑料从生产到生命周期结束的地图,估计了当前的废物流.
- 系统动态建模评估了阶段性政策实施对塑料废物产生的影响.
主要成果:
- 乐观的估计显示,每年从消耗的20万塑料中,有300万塑料被管理不当.
- 如果没有政策干预,到2050年,管理不善的塑料废物每年可能增加到1128万.
- 所有政策的逐步实施预计将从2040年起稳定废物产生.
结论:
- 塑料废物管理规则有可能在印度显著减少未来的塑料废物.
- 一个阶段性,全面的政策方法对于稳定塑料废物产生至关重要,到2040年.
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