声称的诱导性地震性的合理性
Max Wilkinson1,2, Najwa Mhana1,3, Miles P Wilson1,4
1Foulger Consulting Ltd., Durham, UK.
Scientific reports
|December 27, 2024
概括
大多数导致地震的人类活动都与工业诱导有关,特别是压裂和石油/天然气操作. 这项研究评估了881个病例,发现87%是自信诱导的,只有1%是自信自然的.
科学领域:
- 地球科学 地球科学 地球科学
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 确定地震事件的原因对于监管和运营实践至关重要.
- 声称工业诱导的地震性要求可靠的评估方法.
研究的目的:
- 评估全球已知的拟议的人为地震的可靠性.
- 通过邀请专家投入,为改进评估提供基础.
主要方法:
- 全面审查和评估全球已知1235个拟议的人为地震的案例.
- 对881个案件的证据进行评分,以分类其诱导状态.
主要成果:
- 87%的可评估案件被归类为"有信心诱导".
- 10%是"可能诱导",2%是"含糊不清",<1%是"自信地自然".
- 压裂,地热和传统的石油/天然气活动被确定为最具有地震性.
结论:
- 大多数具有足够数据的评估地震事件都与工业活动有关.
- 很大一部分案件缺乏足够的信息来进行最终分类.
- 未来的评估可以从数据挖掘,人工智能和独立的科学小组中受益.
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