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未来气候和土地利用变化对中国热带地区的下水的影响

Shiyu Xue¹, Xiaohui Guo¹, Yanhu He²

¹School of Ecology, Hainan University, Haikou, 570228, China.

Scientific reports

|December 27, 2024

概括

未来的气候和土地利用变化将对热带河流流量产生重大影响,在大多数情况下预计降水量将增加. 预计流水会转移,在雨季更多地集中,需要适应性水资源管理.

科学领域:

水文和气候科学水文和气候科学
环境建模环境建模
热带生态系统热带生态系统

背景情况:

排水动态主要受到气候变化和人类活动的影响,未来预测存在不确定性,特别是在森林砍伐严重的热带地区.
了解这些影响对于有效的水资源管理和脆弱地区的灾害控制至关重要.

研究的目的:

在各种气候和土地利用情景下,评估对未来环境变化在丁河流域 (DRB) 排水的反应.
量化气候变化和土地利用变化对未来冲水动态的影响.

主要方法:

采用 CMIP6 中的土壤和水评估工具 (SWAT) 模型与全球气候模型 (GCM) 集成.
利用四条共享社会经济路径 (SSP) 进行近期 (2021-2040) 和中期 (2041-2060) 预测.
纳入CA-马尔科夫模型来模拟土地使用变化,特别关注耕地扩张和人工森林减少.

主要成果:

从历史上看,降雨量呈现出不显著的增长趋势,SSP1-2.6下预计会有显著的增长,SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5下预计会有显著的增长,但SSP2-4.5.5下降.
在所有情景中,温度呈现出显著的上升趋势.
土地利用变化预测显示,耕地持续增加,人工森林覆盖面减少.
未来的溢出预测因场景而异,在SSP5-8.5 (18.24%) 下的中期未来显著增加.
年内排水模式显示,雨季 (五月至十月) 期间的峰值和度较早.

结论:

气候和土地利用的变化将大大改变未来的丁河流域的水文过程.
预计流水的变化,特别是雨季的度,需要积极的流域管理策略.
研究结果为热带地区的水资源管理和灾害预防提供了宝贵的见解,这些地区面临着类似的环境压力.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化海南岛海南岛海南岛水文模拟水文模拟土地使用情况土地使用情况这是一个SWAT模型.

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