在自然时间分析中测量复杂度,以确定大地震发生前压力积累的情况
Panayiotis A Varotsos1,2, Nicholas V Sarlis3,4, Toshiyasu Nagao5
1Section of Condensed Matter Physics, Department of Physics, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Panepistimiopolis, Zografos, 157 84, Athens, Greece. pvaro@otenet.gr.
Scientific reports
|December 27, 2024
概括
一种使用自然时间分析的新方法可以检测大地震 (M≥8.2) 之前的压力积累. 异常规模的交叉点标志着关键阶段,有助于地震预测.
科学领域:
- 地质物理学 地质物理学
- 地震科学 地震科学 地震科学
- 复杂的系统复杂的系统.
背景情况:
- 预测大地震 (M≥8.2) 仍然是一个重大挑战.
- 了解地震事件之前的压力积累模式对于危险评估至关重要.
- 现有的方法往往难以识别地震前的关键阶段.
研究的目的:
- 引入一种新的程序,用于在大地震发生前识别压力积累.
- 用自然时间分析来分析地震性模式,以检测关键阶段.
- 为改进地震预测开发一种复杂度测量方法.
主要方法:
- 在自然时间内对地震性的分析.
- 在各种事件尺度上研究时间逆转下的变波动.
- 开发基于尺度交叉点的复杂度测量.
主要成果:
- 一个新的复杂度测量有效地区分了关键压力积累阶段和背景水平.
- 在大地震之前,观察到不同尺度 (i) 之间的异常交集.
- 该方法使用来自日本 (包括2011年M9东北地震) 和墨西哥 (2017年M8.2恰帕斯地震) 的地震数据进行了验证.
- 一个使用此措施的预印成功预测了2024年1月1日发生的日本M7.6级地震.
结论:
- 在自然时间分析中提出的复杂度测量为地震预测提供了一个有前途的工具.
- 识别异常尺度交叉点可以作为即将发生的大型地震事件的可靠指标.
- 这种方法提高了我们监测和潜在预测地震准备阶段的能力.
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