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对有效登革热集群检测的时空空间方法的比较评估,与泰国国家监测数据的案例研究
Chawarat Rotejanaprasert1,2, Kawin Chinpong3, Andrew B Lawson4,5
1Department of Tropical Hygiene, Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok, Thailand. chawarat.rot@mahidol.ac.th.
Scientific reports
|December 27, 2024
概括
贝叶斯模型和FlexScan最好地检测登革热群体,优于传统方法. 这有助于改善泰国和类似热带地区的疾病监测和资源分配.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 登革热是热带地区的主要公共卫生问题,导致疫情使医疗保健系统承受压力.
- 有效的疾病监测对于管理登革热爆发和有效分配资源至关重要.
- 不同的时空集群检测方法用于登革热监测的比较性能尚未得到充分证实.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较不同时空集群检测方法的性能,用于登革热监测.
- 通过模拟和真实世界的数据,确定检测登革热集群的最有效方法.
- 为改善泰国登革热监测策略提供基于证据的建议.
主要方法:
- 进行了模拟研究,使用多种登革热情景 (不同规模,时空模式).
- 分析了来自泰国 (2018-2020) 的现实世界每月国家登革热监测数据.
- 使用准确度,灵敏度,特异性,正预测值和负预测值的评估方法.
主要成果:
- 贝叶斯模型和FlexScan在检测登革热集群方面表现出卓越的准确性和灵敏性.
- 像Getis Ord和Moran's I这样的传统方法的效果不那么好.
- 空间SaTScan显示了积极预测值的局限性,并鉴定了由于不灵活的扫描窗口而过于大的集群.
结论:
- 贝叶斯模型和FlexScan在登革热监测中的时空集群检测方面非常有效.
- 在贝叶斯模型中纳入时空相互作用可以提高检测性能.
- 这些发现为公共卫生当局提供了指导,以完善登革热和类似疾病的监测和资源分配.
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