一个时间序列研究,研究极端温度和臭氧与水发病率之间的关联
Juan Zhang1, Binhao Wang1, Zixuan Li2
1Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Environment and Human Health, Hebei Medical University, 361 Zhongshan East Road, Shijiiazhuang, 050017, China.
Scientific reports
|December 29, 2024
概括
极寒和低臭氧水平增加了水风险,而热量和高臭氧提供了保护. 这一发现有助于公共卫生预测和预防疫情爆发.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- 麻疹发病率受到环境因素的影响.
- 了解这些联系对于公共卫生干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查极端温度和臭氧对石家庄市麻疹发病率的影响.
- 为加强公共卫生事件预防策略提供数据.
主要方法:
- 从中国石家庄 (2014-2022) 收集了19188例天花病例.
- 使用分布式滞后非线性模型来评估温度和臭氧影响.
- 按年龄和性别分层分析.
主要成果:
- 观察到日均气温与水发病率之间的"J"形关系;较低的温度增加了风险,较高的温度降低了风险,特别是在女性和青少年中.
- 臭氧度与水发病率之间发现了"S"形相关性;低水平的臭氧构成风险,而高水平的臭氧则具有保护性,特别对女性和成年人来说.
结论:
- 极端温度,臭氧度和水发病率之间存在显著的相关性.
- 调查结果可以为及时的疫情警告和预防水的公共应对策略提供信息.
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